# Life Expectancy Turning Point Probe

**Key question**: Is the ~41.8 LE turning point driven by developing countries?
Does it return to ~60+ for OECD? Is the inflation channel dominance universal?

## 1. LE Quadratic by Sample

| Sample | N | Countries | R2 | b(LE) | p(LE) | b(LE2) | p(LE2) | Turning Pt |
|--------|---|-----------|-----|-------|-------|--------|--------|------------|
| Full sample | 4231 | 164 | 0.066 | -0.0782*** | 0.0000 | 0.000659*** | 0.0000 | **59.3** |
| OECD only | 1013 | 37 | 0.259 | 0.2727* | 0.0273 | -0.001604* | 0.0442 | **85.0** |
| Non-OECD | 3218 | 127 | 0.023 | -0.0723*** | 0.0000 | 0.000610*** | 0.0000 | **59.2** |

## 2. LE Quadratic by Income Quartile

| Quartile | N | Countries | R2 | b(LE) | p(LE) | b(LE2) | p(LE2) | Turning Pt |
|----------|---|-----------|-----|-------|-------|--------|--------|------------|
| Income Q1 (poorest) | 958 | 37 | 0.111 | -0.0868*** | 0.0000 | 0.000670*** | 0.0000 | **64.8** |
| Income Q2 | 1102 | 44 | 0.042 | 0.0967* | 0.0134 | -0.000730* | 0.0182 | **66.2** |
| Income Q3 | 1006 | 41 | 0.131 | 0.3732*** | 0.0000 | -0.002569*** | 0.0001 | **72.6** |
| Income Q4 (richest) | 1112 | 40 | 0.094 | 0.1831 | 0.1346 | -0.001047 | 0.1877 | **87.5** |

## 3. Channel Decomposition: Z -> Component (OECD vs Non-OECD)

| Channel | Sample | N | R2 | Z1 (b) | Z1 (p) | Z2 (b) | Z2 (p) | Z3 (b) | Z3 (p) |
|---------|--------|---|-----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| z_growth | OECD | 1013 | 0.182 | 2.248 | 0.2319 | -0.243 | 0.3435 | 0.007 | 0.4739 |
| z_growth | Non-OECD | 3218 | 0.022 | -1.200 | 0.2667 | 0.187 | 0.2528 | -0.008 | 0.2267 |
| z_growth | Full | 4231 | 0.047 | -1.097 | 0.2203 | 0.185 | 0.1660 | -0.009 | 0.1172 |
| z_inflation | OECD | 1013 | 0.417 | -1.860** | 0.0018 | 0.222** | 0.0062 | -0.008* | 0.0126 |
| z_inflation | Non-OECD | 3218 | -0.005 | -1.504 | 0.1001 | 0.250+ | 0.0721 | -0.010+ | 0.0692 |
| z_inflation | Full | 4231 | 0.019 | -1.393+ | 0.0584 | 0.234* | 0.0334 | -0.010* | 0.0264 |
| z_rate | OECD | 879 | 0.318 | -0.488 | 0.3281 | 0.038 | 0.5721 | -0.001 | 0.7549 |
| z_rate | Non-OECD | 2162 | 0.096 | -0.707* | 0.0172 | 0.089* | 0.0470 | -0.003+ | 0.0989 |
| z_rate | Full | 3041 | 0.156 | -0.616* | 0.0104 | 0.084* | 0.0178 | -0.003* | 0.0246 |

## 4. Channel Decomposition: Pre vs Post GFC

| Channel | Period | N | R2 | Z1 (b) | Z1 (p) | Z2 (b) | Z2 (p) | Z3 (b) | Z3 (p) |
|---------|--------|---|-----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| z_growth | Pre-GFC (<=2007) | 2323 | 0.041 | -3.051* | 0.0331 | 0.556* | 0.0104 | -0.026** | 0.0038 |
| z_growth | Post-GFC (>=2008) | 1908 | 0.122 | 0.685 | 0.4414 | -0.091 | 0.4888 | 0.003 | 0.5774 |
| z_inflation | Pre-GFC (<=2007) | 2323 | 0.069 | -3.208*** | 0.0005 | 0.509*** | 0.0003 | -0.021*** | 0.0002 |
| z_inflation | Post-GFC (>=2008) | 1908 | -0.627 | -0.352 | 0.7808 | 0.053 | 0.7743 | -0.001 | 0.8439 |
| z_rate | Pre-GFC (<=2007) | 1584 | 0.144 | -0.963* | 0.0132 | 0.148* | 0.0111 | -0.006** | 0.0098 |
| z_rate | Post-GFC (>=2008) | 1457 | 0.206 | -0.190 | 0.4716 | 0.022 | 0.5740 | -0.001 | 0.6064 |

## 5. LE Quadratic on Each Channel (Full Sample)

| Channel | N | R2 | b(LE) | p(LE) | b(LE2) | p(LE2) | Turning Pt |
|---------|---|-----|-------|-------|--------|--------|------------|
| LE quad -> z_growth | 4231 | 0.048 | 0.1500*** | 0.0000 | -0.001237*** | 0.0000 | **60.6** |
| LE quad -> z_inflation | 4231 | 0.020 | 0.0060 | 0.4537 | -0.000035 | 0.6186 | **84.7** |
| LE quad -> z_rate | 3041 | 0.172 | 0.0102 | 0.1193 | -0.000121* | 0.0188 | **42.4** |

## Interpretation

*(To be filled based on results above)*
